Against the Gods
by Peter Bernstein
In
this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society, Peter
Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under control is one
of the central ideas that distinguished modern times from the more
distant past. Against the Gods, a narrative that reads like a
novel, chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated
humanity from the oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools
of risk management that are available to us today. This is a
richly-woven tale of Greek philosophers and Arab mathematicians, of
merchants and scientists, gamblers and philosophers, world-renowned
intellects and obscure but inspired amateurs who helped discover the
modern methods of putting the future at the service of the present,
replacing helplessness before the fates with choice and decision.
When investors buy stocks, surgeons perform operations, engineers
design bridges, entrepreneurs launch new businesses, astronauts explore
the heavens, and politicians run for office, risk is their inescapable
partner. Yet their actions reveal that risk today need not be feared:
managing risk has become synonymous with challenge and opportunity.
Bernstein presents fascinating vignettes of such towering intellects
as Omar Khayyam, Pascal and Bernoulli, Bayes and Keynes, Markowitz and
Arrow, and Gauss, Galton and von Neumann. With his engaging literary
style, he clarifies the concepts of probability, sampling, regression to
the mean, game theory, and rational versus irrational decision making.
The final sections of the book raise important questions about the role
of the computer, the relationship between facts and subjective beliefs,
the impact of chaos theory, the role of the burgeoning markets for
derivatives, and the looming dominance of numbers.
Against the Gods, The Remarkable Story of Risk
is that rare
book that turns the most profound issues of our time into pure reading
pleasure.
Contents
- TO 1200: BEGINNINGS
The Winds of the Greeks and the Role of the Dice.
As Easy As I, II, III.
- 1200-1700: A THOUSAND OUTSTANDING
FACTS. TO 1200: BEGINNINGS.
The Winds of the Greeks and the Role of the Dice.
As Easy As I, II, III.
- 1200-1700: A THOUSAND OUTSTANDING FACTS.
The Renaissance Gambler.
The French Connection.
The Remarkable Notions of the Remarkable Notions Man.
- 1700-1900: MEASUREMENT UNLIMITED.
Considering the Nature of Man.
The Search for Moral Certainty.
The Supreme Law of Unreason.
The Man with the Sprained Brain.
Peapods and Perils.
The Fabric of Felicity.
- 1900-1960: CLOUDS OF VAGUENESS AND THE DEMAND FOR PRECISION.
The Measure of Our Ignorance.
The Radically Distinct Notion.
The Man Who Counted Everything Except Calories.
The Strange Case of the Anonymous Stock Broker.
- DEGREES OF BELIEF: EXPLORING UNCERTAINTY.
The Failure of Invariance.
The Theory Police.
The Fantastic System of Side Bets.
Awaiting The Wildness.
- Notes.
- Bibliography.
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